Waves of foreign portfolio investments worth over Rs 51,000 crore splashed into the Indian market in 2021 as overseas investors turned net buyers of domestic securities for the third straight year while excess global liquidity and other factors steered the ebb and flow of their investing ways. With the global financial system still flush with liquidity, emerging market assets, especially equities, might well remain the preferred investment avenue for many more months to come, experts opined. As the equities sizzled during most of 2021, that also saw economy slowly coming back into the recovery path, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turned net buyers but their investment is much less compared to net inflows of Rs 1.03 lakh crore in 2020.
The primary market is expected to remain vibrant, with at least 10 companies, including supermart major Vishal Mega Mart and Blackstone-owned diamond grading firm International Gemmological Institute (India) Ltd expected to raise a combined Rs 20,000 crore in the next month, merchant bankers said. Education-focused NBFC Avanse Financial Services, TPG Capital-backed Sai Life Sciences, hospital chain operator Paras Healthcare, and investment bank DAM Capital Advisors are also among the companies planning to launch their IPOs in December, they added. The companies aim to raise a total of Rs 20,000 crore through their public offerings.
Equity markets rallied after softer-than-expected inflation data in the US and UK rekindled hopes of the end of the rate-hiking cycle by major central banks. The soft inflation reading drove down bond yields and the US dollar, whetting the appetite for risky assets. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4.5 per cent after topping 5 per cent less than a month ago.
'Arbitrage funds make the most sense for those in the 30 per cent tax bracket, are viable for those in the 20 per cent bracket, but less so for those in the 10 per cent bracket.'
Sebi is learnt to have written to several regulators including those in Bermuda, Luxembourg, and Switzerland, seeking detailed information on some FPIs.
Being part of category-I implies lower compliance burden, simplified know-your-customer norms and documentation requirements, and fewer investment restrictions.
Foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows into India may remain tepid in 2022, said a recent note by Goldman Sachs, who now peg the foreign portfolio investment into India at $5 billion in 2022, down from their earlier forecast of $30 billion with risks skewed to the downside. "There has been $15 billion of equity outflows YTD in India already, and the IPO of the largest insurance company has been pushed out. "Additionally, with no mention of India's inclusion in global bond indices in the Union Budget, there are risks to our already conservative base case assumption of an announcement of India's likely inclusion into the GBI-EM Global Diversified Bond Index in Q4-2022," wrote Andrew Tilton, Goldman Sachs' chief Asia-Pacific economist in a co-authored report with Santanu Sengupta and Suraj Kumar.
'The market was expecting the Budget to do more, given the domestic economic slowdown and global uncertainty. Over the next few days, the market is expected to absorb the volatility.'
Amid volatility in stock markets generated by tension between Russia and the US over Ukraine, LIC chairman M R Kumar on Monday said that the insurance behemoth was watching the geo-political situation carefully, though it was keen on listing of the IPO in March. The Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) has already filed the DRHP with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for its initial public offering (IPO). "We are watching the situation closely and carefully...but we are very keen on having listing in March," Kumar said, when asked about the impact of the evolving geopolitical situation on the upcoming IPO.
As many as 40 staffers, in the key equities and investment banking division in India, could be asked to go as part of the London-headquartered lender's global layoffs, said people aware of the development. HSBC India declined to comment.
Even as FIIs have pumped in $15 billion in 2013, key indices have declined 3%.
'For the next two years, we expect the bulk of earnings growth contribution from sectors like financials and energy, where the outlook remains positive, while the sectors which are linked to domestic consumption and are currently witnessing strains on margins have low salience for Nifty earnings.'
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) remained net buyers in Indian markets in October so far, pumping in a net Rs 17,749 crore in the month as better than expected quarterly results, the opening of the economy, and resumption of business activities kept investors' interest intact. In equities, FPIs invested a net sum of Rs 15,642 crore and the debt segment saw an inflow of Rs 2,107 crore during October 1-23, the depositories data showed. The total net investment during the period under review stood at Rs 17,749 crore.
The RBI has changed the way it approached supervision in the past. Having seen a couple of collapses in the NBFC sector and the near-collapse of a few banks, it is focusing on regular drills to prevent a fire from breaking out, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Companies, which missed out on listing earlier, are giving it another shot but with significantly-reduced issue sizes. In the recent past, companies such as TVS Supply Chain Solutions, Suraj Estate Developers, and ESAF Small Finance Bank have re-filed their draft red herring prospectuses (DRHPs) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). This came after they slashed their issue sizes by 20-60 per cent.
P-notes are issued by registered Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) to overseas investors who wish to be a part of the Indian stock market without registering themselves directly. They, however, need to go through a due diligence process. According to Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) data, the value of P-note investments in Indian markets -- equity, debt, and hybrid securities -- stood at Rs 90,580 crore at April-end, compared to Rs 87,979 crore in March.
M&M was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, declining nearly 3 per cent, followed by TCS, Bajaj Finance, Wipro, Kotak Bank, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech and Tata Motors. In contrast, Titan, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank and L&T were among the gainers, rising up to 0.93 per cent.
After withdrawing record funds in 2021-22, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their sell-off in the last fiscal too and pulled out Rs 37,631 crore from Indian equities amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally. The outflow trend is likely to reverse in the current financial year since India has the best growth potential in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. Market analysts believe that FPI flows in the current financial year would be decided by a host of factors, such as the US Federal Reserve's policy stance, oil prices movement and development in the geopolitical situation.
Friday will be a landmark day for domestic markets, with all the listed stocks entering the professed T+1 (trading plus one day) settlement cycle. About 200 stocks, which account for more than 80 per cent of India's market capitalisation, will be settled on a next-day basis, with effect from January 27. This will evidently complete the transition to the T+1 cycle that started in February 2022 with the bottom 500 stocks in terms of market value.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are likely to get a reprieve from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) in case of a passive or unintended breach of the thresholds that trigger additional disclosure norms. According to sources, FPIs whose single group exposure exceeds 50 per cent of their corpus will get 10 trading days to bring down their exposure below the prescribed level, without triggering the stricter disclosure norms. If total equity exposure of an overseas fund exceeds Rs 25,000 crore and it doesn't wish to provide additional disclosures, it will have three months to pare its exposure.
HUL was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding around 4 per cent, followed by Maruti, HDFC Bank, PowerGrid, IndusInd Bank, HCL Tech and Bajaj Finserv. On the other hand, Axis Bank, SBI, ONGC and ICICI Bank were among the gainers. NSE Nifty fell 149.95 points to 13,817.55.
'The good news is that money continues to flow into India-focussed offshore funds.'
These include increasing the public float in listed companies to 35 per cent from 25 per cent, increasing the minimum statutory limit for FPI investment in a firm from 24 per cent to the sectoral foreign investment, and lowering government holding in listed public sector undertakings.
'While investors need to be prepared for making some losses, they should not lose big money chasing euphoria amid fear of missing out.'
Benchmark Sensex pared early losses to close 242 points higher while Nifty settled above the 18,000-mark on Wednesday following gains in IT, oil and select banking stocks amid mixed global trends. Extending gains for a second day, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 242.83 points or 0.40 per cent to close at 61,275.09 with 20 of its constituents ending in the green. The index opened lower at 60,990.05 but later regained foot to touch a high of 61,352.55 in day trade.
'Some risks to this market rally include inflation, erratic weather conditions, rising crude prices, slowing global growth and the resultant impact on domestic exports, escalation in geopolitical tensions.'
Continuing its heavy selling spree for the eighth consecutive month, foreign investors pulled out nearly Rs 40,000 crore from the Indian equity market in May on fears of an aggressive rate hike by US Federal Reserve that dented investor sentiments. With this, net outflow by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from equities reached at Rs 1.69 lakh crore so far in 2022, data with depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI flows will remain volatile in the emerging markets on account of rising geo-political risk, rising inflation, tightening of monetary policy by central banks, among others, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities said.
Among the Sensex firms, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tata Steel, ITC, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Maruti, Mahindra & Mahindra and State Bank of India were the biggest winners. Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, Asian Paints, Wipro and Tata Motors were the biggest laggards.
The investors had pumped in a net sum of Rs 2,965.66 crore on February 11, the second-highest single-day inflow so far this month.
However, it is noteworthy that foreign investors pumped in money on the day of election results as the mandate became clear
The 50-share Nifty scaled a high of 10,227.30 intra-day but succumbed to profit-booking to finish at 10,155.25
'A key reason for the strong interest in IPOs has been an increased focus on profitability and reasonable pricing of deals.'
Eleven companies have launched their initial public offerings (IPOs) in December 2023, making this month the second-best December for public offerings since 1996. Collectively, they are raising Rs 8,182.7 crore this month. In December 2021, 11 companies raised Rs 9,534 crore. However, excluding December 2021, this month marks the best December for IPOs since 1996.
FPIs have turned net sellers in 2022 after being net buyers in the last three years.
The stock market's continuing love affair with the bears is making investors shy away from not only domestic mutual funds, but also India-dedicated foreign funds, which is evident from the redemption pressure on them.
'Investing abroad helps mitigate currency risk for foreign-currency denominated goals, such as children's higher education and international travel.'
After turning net buyers last month, foreign investors have become aggressive shoppers of Indian equities and have invested Rs 22,452 crore in the first two weeks of August amid softening inflation concerns. This was way higher than a net investment of nearly Rs 5,000 crore by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in the entire month of July, data with depositories showed. FPIs had turned net buyers for the first time in July, after nine straight months of massive net outflows, which started in October last year.
Following the sharp run in markets, valuations across the board have become elevated. The National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index now trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24.3 times, 18 per cent higher than this year's low of 20.5 times. The valuation expansion in the broader markets has been sharper.
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